Thursday 26 September 2013

2013-28 $11 billion

is the today's estimate of the fine on JP Morgan related to mortgage-based securities.
The bank is in negotiations with regulatory agencies in the U.S.; $11 billion is the rumored amount. Yesterday the talk was about $3 billion - see post 2013-23

So what happens with shares of a bank that may be paying a record - breaking penalty? They go up.

There are two interpretations:
1. Wall Street Journal's (the view from Wall Street)
the fine puts the legal problems behind, and the bank will be able to concentrate on what it does best (i.e. money)
2. My suggestion: there was talk of $20 billion. So if they end up with $11 billion, it is not so bad.

Here is the Wall Street Journal article, in case you cannot read it online

Knowledge Is Power at J.P. Morgan

Investors May Be Seeing Some Light at the End of the Firm's Legal Tunnel

    By
  • DAVID REILLY
Eleven-figure legal settlements are scary for any company, even big banks. But for investors, there is also something to be said for certainty.
J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +2.74% appears to be nearing a settlement with federal and state regulators over mortgage-backed bonds. The possible price could be a cool $11 billion or even more.
Only a portion, possibly $7 billion, would be cash, with the remainder coming through relief to consumers. Even so, that is still a big hit, equal to nearly a third of the bank's forecast 2013 net income. Yet J.P. Morgan's stock rose nearly 3% Wednesday.
One possible reason: A deal would show the bank is getting some of its numerous legal issues sorted. A week ago, it settled for nearly $1 billion charges related to its "London whale" trading debacle. And even a big number at least allows investors to quantify the damage.
Consider Bank of America. In recent years, it entered into settlements worth many billions of dollars related to mortgage securities, including an $8.5 billion agreement still subject to legal challenge. Yet BofA's stock rebounded as it showed it was whittling down its mountain of legal woe and could handle the cost.
Granted, J.P. Morgan's settlement, if reached, could cause larger-than-expected legal expenses for the current quarter. While the bank had signaled those would likely be more than $1.5 billion, the charge could now end up even higher. And the bank still faces other regulatory and legal issues.
For investors, though, just being able to put a figure on such hits is half the battle.

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