Monday 16 September 2013

2013-08 Five years after the Great Recession Started

Various publications reflect on the five years since Lehman Brothers collapsed. You can find a wide variety of opinions. Here is the one I find the most interesting.

Matthew Yglesias summarizes well what we have, and have not, learned from the crisis.

1. Ending the financial panic of 2008-2009 was not sufficient to get the economy on track
2. Economic predictions were too optimistic. They mention a projection, made in 2009, that the unemployment rate in the US will peak at 8% and will be 5.5% by now. Actually, the unemployment rate reached 10.6% in the US (and 8.8% in Canada, which was less affected) and is still over 7%.

Bottom line: a financial crisis drags on for a long time. This is the message of a well know book by Reinart and Rogoff: "This time is Different" (warning: it is a long read).

3. In 2002 Bernanke, then not yet the chair of the US central bank, pointed out that we will not repeat mistakes from the Great Depression. During the Great Depression the FED reduced the money supply, leading to a prolonged slump. This time monetary policy was expansionary, with interest rates near zero and new measures: forward guidance (promises to keep interest rates low for a long time) and quantitative easing (massive purchases of long-term securities).

4. We still do not have a good answer on what policy can help the economy create jobs. See posting 2013-11.




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