Sunday 3 November 2019

2019-21 Interest rates and exchange rates

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged, while the Federal reserve reduced its policy rate by 0.25%. As you recall from chapter 4, that should result in a appreciation of the Canadian dollar. As you can see on the graph below, it actually depreciated.
Why? Hard to say. Perhaps currency traders expect that, with the US central bank stimulating the economy and Canadian central bank doing nothing, in the future the US economy will get stronger.
A more sinister explanation: currency traders got convinced, just before the US central bank move, that interest rates will fall. This means bond prices will increase. So they sold various assets, including Canadian bonds, and bought US bonds.


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