Friday 1 November 2019

2019-20 Challenges for the new President of the European Central Bank

Christine Lagarde, the former French finance minister and head of the International Monetary Fund has started as the President of the European Central Bank (ECB); the home of the Euro. There is an excellent summary of her challenges in an e-mail from the Economist.
1. The European economy is weak, and the economy of the biggest country, Germany. is shrinking.
2. Central banks are run by committees (in ECB: the Governing Council), which is divided; her role would be to build a consensus.
3. The division in the Governing Council is about how aggressive should monetary stimulus be. In the latest round, 
- the policy rate (a short-term interest rate controlled by central banks) was reduced to -0.5% (i.e. banks that keep their reserves at ECB are charged 0.5% per year).
- ECB restarted a bond - buying program. ECB buys bonds, which raises bond prices and reduces their interest rates.
All this is to increase inflation in the Euro area to the target, just under 2%. As the graph below shows, the inflation rate has been around 1% for several years now (the core inflation, which excludes prices in volatile categories: in particular oil and food, is the one that matters).



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