2019-13 The Canadian economy is slowing down

According to the recent report from Statistics Canada, the Canadian economy has unexpectedly slowed down. In July, GDP was the same as in June, while analysts expected 0.1% growth (this is monthly growth, not year-to-year).

8 out of 20 industrial sectors contracted; output of goods-producing industries fell 0.7% and the decline was widespread. Construction also shrunk 0.7%.

As you recall, the definition of a recession includes a widespread decline affecting many industrial sectors and construction. So this reports is in accordance with the definition. But for a recession, the situation has to be protracted, and last several months. This is just a single month.

GDP growth sometime stalls - see the period between mid 2014 and mid 2016.

We are not alone. In the US manufacturing activity fell to the lowest level in 10 years. The report is a bit breathless - see the fragment below. But the bottom line is that our economies are slowing down.

So the current economic situation is worth watching.

The fragment below is from the Institute of Supply Management September 2019 report.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The September PMI^® registered 47.8 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. The New Orders Index registered 47.3 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the August reading of 47.2 percent. The Production Index registered 47.3 percent, a 2.2-percentage point decrease compared to the August reading of 49.5 percent. The Employment Index registered 46.3 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the August reading of 47.4 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.1 percent, a 0.3-percentage point decrease from the August reading of 51.4 percent. The Inventories Index registered 46.9 percent, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.7 percent, a 3.7-percentage point increase from the August reading of 46 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 41 percent, a 2.3-percentage point decrease from the August reading of 43.3 percent. The Imports Index registered 48.1 percent, a 2.1-percentage point increase from the August reading of 46 percent.