Sunday 20 November 2016

2016-26 Economic effects of Trump's victory so far

Bonds are falling (i.e. interest rates are increasing) and stock prices are rising

"More than $1-trillion was wiped off the value of bonds around the world this week as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies are seen boosting spending and quickening inflation."
"Global stocks gained $1.3-trillion in the same period"

So what is going on? Markets believe that Trump will deliver on the following promisses:
- tax cuts
- infrastructure spending
- reducing regulation

The first two imply that inflation will increase. Higher expected inflation implies higher nominal interest rates, i.e. lower bond prices.
The first two also imply that the economy will improve in the short to medium run. This means the FED will increase interest rates earlier than expected, and prices of bonds fall.
Reduction in regulation is likely to lead to higher profits and so stock prices rise.

What will happen long - term is difficult to say. US will have larger deficits and debt,which may lead to slower growth and still higher interest rates.

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