Tuesday 8 November 2016

2016-21 Trump's win and financial markets

All predictions were that Clinton would win. As I am writing this (11pm Tuesday) it seems that the result is a surprise: it looks like Trump will win the election. Florida has just been called for Trump.

How do markets react to surprise? We have seen before that markets view Trump's win negatively. And indeed:

  • Asian markets fell (except for China)
  • Dow Jones futures fell 4% (700 points)
  • Which country is expected to lose the most if Trump wins? Mexico. And, indeed: "The Mexican peso has plunged more than 10% to an all-time low"
What is the problem? Uncertainty. Here is a comment from the CNN:
"Investors turned to assets that are seen as safer bets in times of uncertainty. Gold jumped more than 2% and the Japanese yen surged more than 2% against the dollar."

What about the Canadian dollar? It should appreciate, especially if Americans will now move to Canada. You know: they will be selling assets in the US and buying assets in Canada.
We will see tomorrow

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