(by the way, I am writing it on Sunday but it is tomorrow's news today: the article is dated Monday 24 October 2016 01.34)
CETA - the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement - has been negotiated for the last 7 years. The summit at which it was to be signed was planned for Thursday. But Wallonia - the French-speaking southern part of Belgium - said no. On the EU side the agreement must be signed by all 28 countries. Belgium is divided into 3 regions and, according to Belgian constitution, all three must agree for Belgium to sign. And Wallonia does not. It wants more protection for its farmers (obviously) and less power for the multinationals (obviously again) plus a few more things.
Here are the populations:
Wallonia: 3.5 million
Canada: 36 million
EU: 500 million.
But a rule is a rule. The visit by Trudeau on Thursday is in question. In latest news Walonia was given an ultimatum by the European commission. Agree by Monday evening, or the visit by Trudeau is cancelled.
Guess what they said.
This is part of a general move against globalization (see Brexit, Trump). I suspect that, quietly, some EU countries are not unhappy. If EU cannot agree with a friendly, benign nation such as Canada, who can they agree with? EU is facing negotiations with Britain about Brexit. The fate of CETA shows that it may not be easy, giving the EU strong negotiating position
There is (almost) always a silver lining.
No silver lining in our trade numbers below
Canada's Exports | ||
| United States | 73% | 76% |
| European Union | 9% | 8% |
| China | 4% | 4% |
| Mexico | 2% | 2% |
| Canada's Imports | ||
| United States | 63% | 66% |
| European Union | 10% | 10% |
| China | 6% | 7% |
| Mexico | 3% | 3% |
How many times bigger to the US?
| Exports | 2010 | 2015 |
| European Union | 7.9 | 10.1 |
| China | 20.9 | 18.5 |
| ROW | 8.0 | 8.8 |
| Imports | 2010 | 2015 |
| European Union | 6.4 | 6.8 |
| China | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| ROW | 5.7 | 7.4 |
Roughly speaking, US, EU and China + Mexico are each around 25% of the world economy, So if foreign trade intensity was the same, all numbers in the last table would be 1.
Not only is our intensity of trade with anyone but US very small, but except for China it is declining.
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