Tuesday 4 October 2016

2016-11 Since we are talking about exchange rates

here is an article on the falling pound
The pound is falling because of Brexit: the vote in a British referendum in June to leave the European Union.
The pound lost 13% since the vote and 20% in one year compared to the US dollar and 20% in a year in terms of the Euro.
What are the consequences? Since prices changed little during this period, the real exchange rate of the pound fell and so

  • foreign holidays for Brits became more expensive
  • holidays in Britain became cheaper
The article also says that imported goods will cost more. Sure, but it may take some time. It depends on the exchange rate pass-through: the speed with which changes in the real exchange rate are reflected in prices. Initially, sellers try to keep prices from increasing too much by reducing profits.
Similarly, British goods will become cheaper abroad, but it will take some time: sellers will happily book higher profits. 

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