Tuesday 3 November 2015

2015-14 Global economy is weak

The global economy is weak. The weakness takes place despite the fact that
- the FED has not changed interest rate
- the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank continue the policy of quantitative easing, i.e. buy various long-term assets to stimulate the economy
- the Chinese central bank recently reduced interest rates and reserve requirements.

Here is an amazing statistic:
"Appetite for safe assets is so strong in Europe that about 30 per cent of the $6.3 trillion of sovereign bonds in the euro area have negative yields, index data compiled by Bloomberg show. That means buyers who hold to maturity are willing to accept small losses in return for the promise that most of their money will be returned."

People are talking about the new normal, with low interest rares and low inflation rates.
Prices in Europe did not change in October after falling 0.1% in September. German exports are falling, and it looks like China will have the slowest growth in 25 years.

All this news suggests that the FED should wait with raising interest rates because demand is too weak to increase the inflation rate.

No comments:

Post a Comment