Sunday 1 November 2015

2015-13 US nearing full employment

According to a survey of economists, the US is approaching full employment.

The article provides a nice definition of full employment: "“Full employment” is a term economists use to signify an economy in balance: where there is no longer cyclical economic weakness, but also no pressures pushing the inflation rate ever higher. The term doesn't signify an economy in which everyone has a job, let alone a good one."

The unemployment rate in the US is 5.1%. During the Great recession it was 10%, so the decline since 2009 is 5%. In comparision, the unemployment rate in Canada during this period fell by less than 2%
Not everything is great, however. Participation rate, at 62.4% is the lowest since 1977, when a smaller proportion of women were in the labour force.
The participation rate has not been increasing. This is a surprise. Many economists thought the low participation rate following the Great Recession was due to discouraged workers, who would return to the labour force once the unemployment rate declines. But this has not happened.
One possible explanation is that more people retire before age 65 and that young people stay in school longer.
No wage increases. Another surprise is that wages remain flat despite the low unemployment rate. Some economists argue that wages will start to increase eventually; other point out to the increase in benefits.

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