Saturday 3 October 2015

2015-08 Growth returns

The Canadian economy seems to be growing again. In the last two months the economy grew by 0.7%, which if continued would be about 4% per year. That is fast growth by past standards.
A few months ago, commentators worried about a recession. Why? They were using a simple definition of a recession: two consecutive quarters of output decline. But as you have seen, the actual definition of a recession is more complex. According to the C.D. Howe institute, a recession is a "pronounced, pervasive and persistent decline in aggregate economic activity"
Over the past two quarters, the decline in output was not very pronounced: it was only 0.1%-0.2%. To figure out whether the decline is persistent, one needs to wait a little. It turns out it was not persistent as the economy grew in June and July. And it was not pervasive because most of the decline was in the oil sector and in car production.
The author of the article argues that the decline in output before June was due to temporary factors: unscheduled maintenance at oil facilities in Alberta and a retooling of a Chrysler minivan plant. With the temporary factors gone, the GDP is growing again.

1 comment:

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