2015-10 What goes in the monetary policy decision

The US central bank (FED) has been considering an increase in interest rates. The policy rate has been near zero since 2008, i.e. the Great Recession. This is unprecedented, both in terms of level, and length. An increase in the policy rate would signal a return to normality.
These two articles summarize what the FED takes into account when deciding on whether to raise interest rates.

The first article points to
- retail sales
- produce price inflation
- lower investment in the energy sector due to falling energy prices

The second article points to
- growth in manufacturing
- the state of the labour market, as seen from the number of new unemployment claims.

Bottom line: economic activity is slowing down, while the labour market is tight, with record low new unemployment claims. The mixed signals make the FED task difficult.