Monday 15 September 2014

2014-09 What every economics and business student should know

Here is  list of what Apple is worth more than

Should you know the details? Of course not. You should know which of the items on the list involve wrong comparisons.

Hint: cannot compare stocks and flows.  Why? Here is an example: you are going on a trip. The distance you will be driving is 90km. You are driving on a highway and doing 110. What is bigger: the distance you are driving or the speed with which you are driving? (see the hint at the end of this post).

The value (market cap) of Apple is a stock; many things listed on this website are flows. For example:

  1. US stock market in 1977 - stock, so this is ok
  2. annual prescription drug sales - flow. Wrong
  3. 300 years of Irish beer consumption - that is a difficult one. The way I would read it is: the amount of beer the Irish drank between 1714 and 2014, That is a stock, OK.  (On the other hand, if the question was: it is worth more than the beer Irish drink over a period of 300 years, that would be a flow (per 300 years) - flow. Wrong)
  4. Construction of interstate highways - stock,OK
  5. Worldwide lottery sales - flow. Wrong
  6. Global coffee industry There are two comparisons here:
The global coffee industry employ some 25 million people and generates $70 billion dollars a year. With a market cap of over $400 billion, Apple is worth more than 5 years of the coffee industry. In addition, Apple’s $46 billion in revenue in the last quarter eclipses the United States coffee industry value, estimated at $19 billion.

The first one compares Apple market cap: $400 bln, which is a stock, with 5 years of coffee sales, which is a flow. Wrong
The second compares Apple revenue - a flow, with the US coffee industry value. If this means the value of coffee sales, it is a flow so the comparison is ok. If that means the value of coffee companies in the US, that is a stock and the comparison is wrong.

The problems are two:
- the one you should avoid: mixing up stock and flows
- imprecise language. When you are driving and doing 110, you are driving 110 km/hour.

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