Tuesday 9 September 2014

2014-03 Scottish Independence and the British Pound

A recent opinion poll showed, for the first time, that Scotland may vote for independence
The pound and shares of some banks fell as a result. Why? Uncertainty.
The central economic issue is currency. If Scotland separates it can introduce its own currency or try to stay with the pound. The third option: joining the Euro, is difficult as there is a long process involved.

Here is a Bloomberg article which compares this with Quebec

Just as it was the case with Quebec, the separatist side promises to keep the currency, while the central government says it will not allow that. In practice, Scotland can use the pound as long as it has sufficient supply of the actual banknotes. To secure the supply may be a bit tricky, since the Bank of England (note the name) may not be willing to send truckloads of banknotes to Scotland.

Why this discussion of using the pound? People do not like uncertainty. An introduction of a new currency may end in a large depreciation, with the Sound (Scottish Pound) falling a lot, making imported goods and services (think - tourism, Scotland is a small place with poor weather) becoming much more expensive.

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