Wednesday 30 October 2013

2013-56 Deflation in Europe

We have just talked about the possible (if doubtful) benefits of inflation. Here is an article about deflation in Europe
I am not sure you can read it - access may be restricted to subscribers - so here is a summary.
1. After underperforming for a long time, the Euro-area economy starts growing. But unemployment is high "And now, the single-currency club faces a more dangerous health risk stemming from fiscal consolidation, a surprisingly strong euro, excess capacity and tight credit conditions: economy-crippling deflation."

2. Inflation in the area is below 1%, the lowest level since 2008. Prices have been falling in France, Italy and Spain. Even in Germany it is only 1.6%.

3. So the ECB can safely stimulate the economy, without the danger of inflation.

4. If Europe falls into deflation, the cost of servicing debts will "rise dramatically". Italy in particular will be in trouble. According to one estimate, to keep the debt/GDP ratio constant, it needs to increase its surplus by more than 1% for each % decrease in inflation

5. What is at fault? Austerity

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