Monday 14 October 2013

2013-45 Summers on the fiscal problem

Ok, so perhaps the US fiscal problem will be resolved on Tuesday, perhaps not.
It got boring by now. It looks like the best we can hope for is a temporary fix. So, for a fresh perspective, here is a comment by Larry Summers , former US Treasury secretary and former President of Harvard, who looks beyond the budget impasse.

The current fight is about the cuts to government spending as projections of future debt are dire. Summers makes a couple of interesting points:
  • "Projections that there will be a major deficit problem are highly uncertain"
He points out that the same people who are very concerned about deficit and debt are not concerned about global warming, claiming insufficient evidence global warming is a problem. Well, there is much more evidence about global warming than about dire US fiscal future.
  • "Data from the CBO (Congressional Budget Office, a non-partisan institution) imply that an increase of just .2 percent in annual growth would entirely eliminate the projected long-term budget gap."
So politicians should worry about growth, not deficits.

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