Wednesday 12 November 2014

2014-49 Russian monetary policy again

In the second piece in this Bloomberg TV presentation (it starts in second 22 of the clip) the change in monetary policy in Russia is described. Previously, the Russian Central bank intervened in the forex in a predictable fashion, We discussed what the bank did in posting 2014-29. Here it is:

  • the band is unusually wide:  ± 12.5% (the current band is, according to the article, to keep the ruble exchange rate between 35.65 and 44.65 rubles per basket (the formulation is odd because the exchange rate is calculated against a basket of currencies, not a single currency). A more typical band is ±1% or ±2.5%
  • once the exchange rate approaches a limit of the band, the central bank intervenes - this is a standard procedure. Recently the ruble was weak so the bank would intervene to prop up (increase) its value by buying rubles (i.e. increasing demand for them) and selling foreign currencies. Also standard.
  • once the daily intervention reaches a limit ($350 million) the band is moved up by 0.05 ruble (5 kopecks). This mechanical rule is also unusual. 
The Bank of Russia is ending this type of intervention. Why? As the Bloomberg reporter says, it was predictable and so could be taken advantage off by speculators. The bank will still intervene, but not in a predictable way.

It looks like Russian markets are shaky The Rubble has been falling, and bond yields have been increasing. The interest rate on Russian bonds with maturity of 13 years is 10.16%.
Unfortunately, the graphs mentioned in the article are not available.

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