Monday 27 October 2014

2014-37 Results of the stress test in Europe

Turns out that several banks failed the test.
Recall that a stress test involves assuming very unfavourable conditions and checking if the bank has sufficient capital to survive.
Among them Monte dei Paschi di Siena. The first bank I ever went to in Italy. But I was not the first client - I am not that old.

Out of the 123 banks checked, 24 failed the test (in the sense that their capital was inadequate). The tests take a long time and, in the meantime, 10 brought up their capital to the required level, leaving 14 banks which need to raise capital within the next 9 months or be shut down.
Monte dei Paschi's problems have been known for a long time. It was listed on the stock exchange in 2000 (after over 500 years of being a private bank) and underwent rapid expansion. Then it had losses, hid them with a derivative contract and has been in trouble since they were made public in 2012.
So what else is new?
According to Eric Reguly in the Globe and Mail, the capital shortfall is not a huge problem. While more banks failed the test than a few years ago, the capital shortfall has not increased.

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