Wednesday 21 November 2012

70. Greece - more problems

Finance ministers of the Eurozone did not come to an agreement on how to make Greek financial situation viable
The current goal is to for Greek debt/GDP ratio to fall to 120% in 2020. It is clear now it is not going to happen. An estimate says it will be 144%. There are three solutions
1. Stop support and let Greece go bankrupt. This seems to be the least preferred option.
2. Cut Greek debt
3. Lend Greece more money and reset the 120% goal to 2022.
Cutting Greek debt is the simplest approach, but
- Germany argues that, for debt to the EU,  it cannot be done legally. The special fund that has been lending Greece money can only lend, not make grants;
- ECB (the European Central Bank) which holds a large portion of Greek debt would not agree;
- debt forgiveness for Greece would be unfair to countries that made the necessary reforms: Portugal and Ireland;
- debt forgiveness would entrench bad fiscal behaviour in Greece.

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