Tuesday 30 October 2018

2018-16. Poor TSX

TSX is at the same level it was 10 years and a few months ago (before the Great Recession. Lost decade in Canadian shares.
Why? Big weight in resources, the prices of which did not do well, and limited number of tech stocks, which did well int he last 10 years.

Sunday 28 October 2018

2018-15. Canadians prefer elimination of deficit, government does otherwise

In an opinion  poll 1000 Canadians were asked whether they preferred elimination of deficit or having a deficit to invest in government programs. 
58% wanted the budget balanced
33% wanted deficit to invest in government programs
But we will have a deficit. During the last election the government was promising deficits no higher than $10 billion a year and a surplus in 2019. But last year and this the deficits are around $19 billion and are projected to increase to over $21 billion in 2019-20.
So what gives? Governments know that when people are asked, in the abstract, if they want a balanced budget, they say yes. But when things become specific, for example the program they like is to be cut, they are against it.
And the second reason is voting. Young people would pay for current deficits, so they are, presumably, against them. Old people benefit from deficits, because they are getting government programs without paying the full bill. And, as I said many times, a smaller proportion of young people vote.

Wednesday 24 October 2018

2018-14 Milton campus will not happen

WLU has been trying for years to open a new campus in Milton. The last government finally agreed to finance the new campus; but the new government has cancelled the funding. Reason - fiscal restraint.

2018-13 Carbon tax

The federal government is introducing a carbon tax. The goal is environmental. Emission of carbon will be taxed, starting at $20 per ton and increasing $10 per year. The revenue from the tax will be returned to households at tax time. The effect is to raise the price of carbon, with limited cost to the population.

Sunday 21 October 2018

2018-12 On Wednesday Bank of Canada is expected to increase the interest rate

On October 24 Bank of Canada is announcing its interest rate decision. It is expected to raise the interest rate, even though the most recent economic data were weak: inflation fell and so did retail sales. To a large extent, the declines were caused by lower prices of gasoline. As we will discuss in due course, the Bank of Canada does not pay much attention to the prices of gasoline because these are volatile and change all the time. It focuses more on the general state of the economy which is booming, and on the inflation rate, which is above target.
By the way, so it happens that only one Bank of Canada interest decision will coincide with the course. The Bank of Canada makes decisions once every 6 weeks; the next one will be right after we finish. So read reports about this one.

Tuesday 16 October 2018

2018-11 US president attacks the central bank

Donald Trump yet again attacked the Federal Reserve, US central bank, for raising interest rates.
What is happening? With record low unemployment, fast growth and inflation above 2% the FED hs been increasing interest rates. That is to be expected when the economy is so strong and interest rates so low. But higher interest rates will slow down economic growth and so Trump criticizes the FED.
The FED is, in principle, independent. The president, who nominates FED chair and board members, can dismiss them but only for cause. In general it is believed that a policy disagreement is not sufficient to dismiss a board member.
So the criticism is unlikely to have much of an effect.
In contrast to the FED, the Federal Government can force the Governor of the Bank of Canada to resign in case of a fundamental policy disagreement. It would issue a directive, ordering the Governor to adopt a particular policy. It is believed that the Governor will then implement the policy and resign. This has never happened.

Monday 1 October 2018

2018-10 Trade agreement signed

The power of a deadline! 2 hours before the deadline the deal was signed. The best source of details is the Guardian